May 17, 2024 /SemiMedia/ -- According to Knometa Research, as of the end of 2023, the global semiconductor production capacity shares were 22.2% in South Korea, 22.0% in Taiwan region, 19.1% in mainland China, 13.4% in Japan, 11.2% in the United States, and 4.8% in Europe.
Knometa Research predicts that mainland China's share of semiconductor production capacity will gradually increase and will rank first in the world in 2026. Japan’s share, on the other hand, is expected to decline from 13.4% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2026.
The report states that the construction of new fabs is rapidly increasing around the world. Many countries and regions are providing subsidies to attract semiconductor manufacturing to local areas to address supply chain issues exposed during the epidemic, and this initiative is likely to continue.
Knometa predicts that IC wafer fab production capacity will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.1% by 2026. Growth will be relatively slow in 2024, but new production capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026.
New fabs are being built in every semiconductor-producing region around the world, and although U.S.-centric semiconductor regulations seek to restrict mainland Chinese companies from developing and introducing cutting-edge processes, mainland China will continue to increase wafer capacity in the coming years, focusing on traditional or mature processes. It is expected that by 2026, mainland China will have the world's largest IC wafer production capacity.
The report pointed out that most foreign-invested companies with wafer fabs in mainland China, including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, TSMC and UMC, have received a partial grace period from semiconductor restrictions in China. As of the end of 2023, a large part of mainland China's IC wafer production capacity comes from these large foreign-funded companies.
As of the end of 2023, mainland China's share of global wafer production is approximately 19%, of which the share from mainland Chinese companies is only 11%. Currently, such mainland Chinese companies are also increasing production capacity. According to Knometa's prediction, by 2025, mainland China's production capacity share will be almost equal to that of major countries/regions, and by 2026, mainland China's chip production capacity will rank first in the world.
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